新集能源（601918）：Q4煤炭价增降本毛利走扩，业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 12.343 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 3.02% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.064 billion yuan, down 13.73% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company plans to implement a special dividend of 0.50 yuan per share, totaling 129.5 million yuan, reflecting confidence in sustainable development [4]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.065 billion yuan, 2.315 billion yuan, and 2.509 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.8, 7.9, and 7.2 [4]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved coal production of 5.08 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% but an increase of 7.0% quarter-on-quarter. The sales volume of commercial coal was 5.22 million tons, up 2.7% year-on-year and 3.8% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The average selling price of coal in Q4 2025 was 558 yuan per ton, down 4.1% year-on-year but up 8.8% quarter-on-quarter. The comprehensive cost per ton was 310 yuan, down 7.9% year-on-year and 5.5% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a gross profit of 248 yuan per ton, up 1.1% year-on-year and 34.0% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The company's total assets were reported at 47.763 billion yuan for 2025, with a total liability of 28.561 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.8% [11]. Future Projections - The company expects revenue growth rates of -3.0% for 2025, 20.3% for 2026, and 22.0% for 2027 [10]. - The report indicates that the company has a total resource reserve of 10.16 billion tons, which accounts for approximately 40% of the total resource amount of the four major coal enterprises in Anhui Province [9].