Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Giant Biogene, with a target price of HK$43.60, indicating a potential upside of 22.0% from the current price of HK$35.74 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the recombinant collagen sector, highlighting its advantages in safety, efficacy, and sustainability, which are seen as fundamental drivers for industry growth [4][34]. - Giant Biogene has established itself as a leader in the recombinant collagen market, with a strategic shift towards brand development in 2026 [9][30]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 54.9 billion, RMB 59.9 billion, and RMB 66.9 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of -0.9%, 9.1%, and 11.8% [7][32]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 18.8 billion, RMB 20.0 billion, and RMB 22.1 billion, with growth rates of -9.0%, 6.6%, and 10.5% [7][32]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at approximately 80.5% in 2025, declining slightly to 79.2% by 2027 [7][32]. Brand and Product Strategy - Giant Biogene operates eight brands, with the core brands being Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, which contribute over 95% of the company's revenue [5][11][13]. - The company plans to launch a medical device and five skincare series in 2026, alongside a brand revamp for Keli Jin [6][30][31]. - The focus will be on expanding both online and offline channels, with plans to increase the number of physical stores and enhance partnerships with high-potential retailers [31][32]. Market Position and Challenges - The company faces short-term challenges due to discussions around the content and testing methods of recombinant collagen, which have impacted sales, particularly for the Kefu Mei brand [18][20][25]. - Despite these challenges, the company is adjusting its strategies, including enhancing online marketing and product offerings to stabilize and grow its market presence [25][29][30].
巨子生物（02367）：首次覆盖：重组胶原蛋白领军者，2026战略转型开启品牌化新篇章