LLDPE：标品排产偏低维持，现货挺涨基差转正

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The futures price of LLDPE has continued to rise, leading to short - term tightening of spot liquidity. Spot prices are actively rising, and the basis in East China has strengthened and turned positive. However, downstream product profits are compressed, and the market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply, and demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6766, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The trading volume was 631,718, and the open interest decreased by 13,392. The 05 - contract basis was - 66 (compared to - 87 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 36 (compared to - 35 the previous day) [1] - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6700 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 6850 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, up from 6650 yuan/ton, 6650 yuan/ton, and 6780 yuan/ton the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures rally continued, leading to short - term tightening of spot liquidity. PE spot prices actively rose, and the basis in East China strengthened and turned positive. Downstream product profits were compressed, but rigid demand orders were maintained, and the trading volume of traders improved significantly. The overseas offer increased, and the forward import profit was opened, but downstream factories were mostly cautious [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil, the raw material, has stabilized and fluctuated, while the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of PE ethylene and ethane processes have improved. The PE futures price has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle reaches, and downstream buyers have not chased the rising price to replenish stocks. The demand for agricultural films in the near - term downstream has weakened, while the rigid demand in the packaging film industry has been maintained. After the recent price decline, the willingness of middle and downstream players to hold positions has weakened, and upstream producers have sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventories, and the basis has been weak. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical has gradually started production, and the planned maintenance in January has decreased compared to the previous month. Some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand still needs to be noted in the medium term [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]