Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-14 01:55Group 1: Report Title and Core Topic - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the title "Industrial Silicon: Downstream Production Cuts, Marginal Decline in Demand; Polysilicon: Monitor Factory Quotations" [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - The demand for industrial silicon is experiencing a marginal decline due to downstream production cuts [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,635 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from T-1, 265 yuan from T-5, and up 385 yuan from T-22; its trading volume is 270,076 lots, up 776 lots from T-1, down 190,391 lots from T-5, and up 17,566 lots from T-22; its open interest is 242,469 lots, up 3,592 lots from T-1, 7,858 lots from T-5, and 70,712 lots from T-22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 49,005 yuan/ton, down 990 yuan from T-1 and 10,360 yuan from T-5; its trading volume is 28,379 lots, down 14,131 lots from T-1 and up 8,460 lots from T-5; its open interest is 48,844 lots, up 14 lots from T-1 and down 23,509 lots from T-5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +615 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from T-1, 265 yuan from T-5, and down 335 yuan from T-22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium (against N-type re - feed) is +6245 yuan/ton, up 990 yuan from T-1, 12,110 yuan from T-5, and 11,435 yuan from T-22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1 and T-5, and down 50 yuan from T-22; Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, T-5, and T-22 [2] - Polysilicon - N-type re - feed price is 54750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T-1, up 1250 yuan from T-5, and 2450 yuan from T-22 [2] Profit - Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2691.5 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from T-1, 630 yuan from T-5, and 85 yuan from T-22; Silicon factory profit (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 4999 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from T-1, 630 yuan from T-5, and 25 yuan from T-22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.3 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan from T-1, 1.6 yuan from T-5, and 2.8 yuan from T-22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from T-5 and 0.9 tons from T-22; Industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.3 tons, up 0.09 tons from T-5 and 2.1 tons from T-22 [2] - Industrial silicon - industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) is 75.5 tons, down 0.41 tons from T-5 and up 1.18 tons from T-22; Industrial silicon - futures warehouse receipt inventory is 5.6 tons, up 0.1 tons from T-1, 0.2 tons from T-5, and 1.7 tons from T-22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Xinjiang silicon ore price is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, T-5, and T-22; Yunnan silicon ore price is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1 and T-5, and down 20 yuan from T-22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - DMC price is 13850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, up 250 yuan from T-5 and T-22; DMC enterprise profit is 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, up 263 yuan from T-5, and 16 yuan from T-22 [2] - ADC12 price is 23950 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, up 450 yuan from T-5, and 2450 yuan from T-22; Recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from T-1, 60 yuan from T-5, and down 80 yuan from T-22 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On the morning of January 11th, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly attended the unveiling ceremony of the photovoltaic technology manufacturing base invested and built by ELITE Solar in Egypt. The Boda Xinneng Egypt industrial base put into production this time consists of two factories, photovoltaic cells and photovoltaic modules, with an annual production capacity of 4GW, connecting the Middle East, Africa, and European markets [2][4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [4]