HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-14 03:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Insights - The founder Zhang Yong has resumed the role of CEO, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and strategic focus on the "Pomegranate Plan" aimed at diversifying the restaurant business and creating a second growth curve [4][5][10]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging market, with an increase in store count from 1,368 at the end of 2024 to 1,381 by early 2026, while the overall hot pot industry has seen a decline in store numbers [5][13]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 42.2 billion, 47.5 billion, and 54.2 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 17.1, 15.2, and 13.3 [6][28]. Summary by Sections Management Changes - Zhang Yong has returned as CEO after nearly four years, following a series of management changes that reflect the company's adaptation to different strategic needs over time [4][10]. - The transition from previous CEO Guo Yiqun to Zhang Yong is expected to stabilize operations and enhance the focus on the "Pomegranate Plan" [5][10]. Market Position and Performance - The hot pot industry is experiencing a contraction, with the total number of hot pot restaurants decreasing by approximately 13.7% from January 2025 to January 2026, while the company has managed to increase its store count [5][13]. - The company’s same-store turnover rate is expected to stabilize and show year-on-year growth by Q4 2025, aided by improving consumer price index (CPI) data [5][17]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend rate of 95% in the first half of 2025 [6][28]. - Under optimistic scenarios, the company could achieve net profits of 50.0 billion and 59.6 billion CNY in 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating growth rates of 18.5% and 19.2% [6][28].