STL(SZ:002648) Huaan Securities·2026-01-14 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, specifically recommending leading companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical [4]. Core Insights - Ethane prices have continued to decline, reaching 1277 RMB/ton as of January 9, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.10% [4]. - Natural gas prices have significantly dropped by 29.02% week-on-week, while ethylene and liquid chlorine prices remained stable [4]. - The report anticipates that despite fluctuations, ethane prices will continue to decline due to a loose supply-demand balance, with expectations for recovery in downstream demand this year [4]. - The report highlights the historical price percentiles for key downstream products, indicating they are currently in a mid-low percentile range [4]. Price Trends of Major Products and Raw Materials - As of January 9, the latest prices for polyethylene, epoxy ethane, polyester monomer, ethylene glycol, and styrene are 6534, 5750, 8200, 3829, and 6796 RMB/ton respectively, with varying week-on-week changes [16][18]. - The report notes that the price of polypropylene has slightly increased by 1.79% week-on-week, while acrylic acid prices remained stable [33][36]. - Brent crude oil prices were recorded at 61.08 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, and natural gas prices at 3.02 USD/MMBtu, down 29.02% [41][44]. Price Differentials - As of January 9, the price differentials for ethylene-ethane, ethylene glycol-ethylene, and other product pairs have shown various changes, with some differentials widening [62][65]. - The ethylene-ethane differential increased by 1.30%, while the ethylene glycol-ethylene differential decreased by 8.40% [70][74]. Competitive Landscape and Downstream Demand - The report indicates that the ethylene-naphtha differential is -1301 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04% [87]. - The cost advantages of ethane cracking over other routes have been emphasized, particularly with the recent decline in ethane prices [90].