SWHY(SZ:000166) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-14 10:44Overview - In December 2025, the overall CPI in the U.S. was 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the core CPI was slightly weaker at 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 2.7% and 0.3% respectively[1][5]. - The market's reaction to the CPI data was muted, with a slight increase in "rate cut trades" following the announcement, but overall performance remained stable[1][5]. Inflation Structure - Core goods inflation in December weakened significantly, primarily due to vehicle inflation, with new and used car prices showing 0% and -1.1% month-on-month changes respectively[2][15]. - Core services inflation saw a rebound, particularly in rent and super core services, with rent CPI increasing by 0.4% month-on-month in December, up from 0.2% in September[2][15]. Economic Outlook - In the first half of 2026, U.S. inflation may remain "sticky," but a "disinflation" phase is expected in the second half as tax cuts take effect, potentially boosting consumer income and spending[3][27]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cut timing may be delayed, as inflation is not currently the primary concern, and any rate cuts will depend on economic data showing significant weakness[3][27]. Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[3][39].