ZHONGYIN BABI FOOD CO.(SH:605338) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2026-01-15 09:39Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][54]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the chain breakfast bun market, with a focus on expanding its new store formats to cultivate new growth curves [5][6]. - The breakfast market in China is characterized by strong demand, with a significant market size and potential for growth, particularly in the segment of Chinese-style buns [6][23]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, providing ample opportunities for consolidation, as many regional brands struggle to expand beyond their local markets due to taste preferences and low entry barriers [6][27]. - The company is pursuing a dual strategy of organic growth through new store openings and external growth via acquisitions, which is expected to drive national expansion and enhance profitability [6][39]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 30.71 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 7,357.09 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 19 billion, 21.39 billion, and 23.80 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.7%, 12.6%, and 11.3% respectively [7][51]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.84 billion, 3.20 billion, and 3.57 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 2.8%, 12.7%, and 11.6% [7][52]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 25.88, 22.97, and 20.59 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][54]. Business Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of Chinese-style buns and related products, with a significant increase in store count from 2,074 in 2016 to 5,685 in the first half of 2025 [6][13]. - The breakfast market in China reached a size of 1.75 trillion yuan in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% from 2015 to 2019 [6][23]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and sales channels, including direct sales, franchising, and group meal services, to capture a larger market share [6][13]. Growth Strategy - The company is implementing a dual approach of internal expansion and external acquisitions to drive growth, with plans to introduce new dining formats that cater to the fast-casual dining trend [6][45]. - The group meal market is expected to grow steadily, with the company actively developing new retail channels to enhance its revenue streams [6][48]. - The introduction of new dining formats is anticipated to open up additional growth avenues, particularly in the fast-casual segment, which aligns with current consumer trends [6][45].