冠豪高新（600433）：老牌特种纸领军，经营稳步改善

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 5.00 CNY [7][21]. Core Insights - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise in the specialty paper industry, focusing on both specialty paper and specialty materials, with a commitment to expanding production capacity and integrating pulp and paper operations [24][12]. - The specialty paper industry is experiencing weak growth overall, but the company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure to enhance competitiveness [2][24]. - The company has a stable revenue scale, with white card paper becoming a core business segment, expected to account for 50.6% of revenue by 2024 [24][25]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 7,403 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 7,588 million CNY in 2024, followed by a decrease to 7,070 million CNY in 2025, and then a recovery to 8,374 million CNY in 2026 and 8,726 million CNY in 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -46 million CNY in 2023, recovering to 184 million CNY in 2024, but dropping to -50 million CNY in 2025, and then significantly increasing to 459 million CNY in 2026 and 540 million CNY in 2027 [4][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.03 CNY in 2023, 0.10 CNY in 2024, -0.03 CNY in 2025, 0.26 CNY in 2026, and 0.31 CNY in 2027 [4][13]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a total production capacity of 230,000 tons for specialty paper and 90,000 tons for white card paper, with production lines located in Guangdong [12][29]. - The company maintains a high production and sales rate, consistently above 90%, indicating strong demand for its products [29][30]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and product development to enhance its market position, particularly in high-end applications [19][24].