12月金融数据多数超市场预期

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The majority of December's financial data exceeded market expectations, with various policies having mixed impacts on different sectors [1][4][25] - Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower, with short - term precious metal rallies slowing down. The US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery. US stock index futures are expected to be volatile during the earnings season but remain bullish overall. A - share index futures still have upward momentum, while treasury bond futures are generally bearish [2][13][17][21][23] - Different commodities have different trends. For example, coal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, iron ore has support at the bottom, steel prices should be treated with a volatile mindset, and the prices of various agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals also show different characteristics [30][32][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Paulson tends to keep interest rates unchanged in the next meeting, may cut rates slightly later this year, and expects inflation to fall to 2% by December. The US initial jobless claims last week were 198,000, lower than expected. Gold prices fluctuated and closed lower due to reduced risk - aversion sentiment and hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Short - term precious metal rallies slow down, and it is advisable to beware of correction risks and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [12][13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 198,000, lower than all expectations. Fed officials have different views on inflation and interest rates. The labor market remains resilient, and the US dollar is expected to continue its short - term recovery [14][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed's Schmid believes there is no reason to cut rates currently. Goldman Sachs' Q4 net profit increased by 12% year - on - year, and TSMC's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, indicating strong demand in the AI chip industry. During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile but remain bullish overall [18][19][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In December 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP, providing liquidity support to the market. The A - share market is expected to have upward momentum, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - December's financial data exceeded market expectations. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and conducted reverse repurchase operations. The impact on the bond market is mixed but generally bearish. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [25][27][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On January 15, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The downstream daily consumption has been weak, and the supply adjustment has accelerated. The coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether coal mines will have an early holiday before the Spring Festival and the implementation of Indonesia's 2026 tariffs [30] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto and BHP will jointly develop 200 million tons of iron ore in the Pilbara region. The iron ore inventory at ports continues to accumulate, and the steel mills' restocking is weak. However, the molten iron is expected to recover moderately, providing support for iron ore prices [31][32] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - As of January 15, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 69,100 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory pattern is acceptable, but the inventory inflection point is approaching, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a volatile mindset and hedge inventory at high prices if the price rebounds [33][34][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB estimates Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season to be 176.12 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year but a 1 - million - ton decrease from the December estimate. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. It is recommended to maintain the view of weak and volatile soybean meal prices and pay attention to South American weather, domestic auctions, and customs policies [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The basis quotes in the cotton market have increased significantly. In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports increased seasonally month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, with textiles showing stronger resilience and clothing facing greater pressure. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [38][41][43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% month - on - month. The oil market was weak due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and Sino - Canadian talks. It is recommended to wait for new drivers in the palm oil market and pay attention to the official results of Sino - Canadian talks for rapeseed oil. Short - term long positions can be considered at low prices if sentiment stabilizes and the production cut is significant [44] 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $43.33 per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased. Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some metal brands from two South Korean companies. The lead price is driven by strong macro factors, but the demand feedback is negative. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [45][46][48] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Starting from April 14, 2026, the LME will no longer accept the warehousing of some zinc brands from two South Korean companies. The zinc price rose significantly. The direct impact on the zinc fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait and see for spreads, and consider positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets, but the driving force is not obvious [49][52][53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Three departments held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to regulate the market order. Tesla's lithium refinery has been put into operation. The lithium carbonate futures price has a short - term correction. It is recommended to control positions and operate cautiously due to high market sentiment and exchange intervention [54][55][56] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - State Grid's "15th Five - Year Plan" investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan." Codelco's Ministro Hales copper mine expansion project has obtained environmental approval. Trump has postponed the imposition of tariffs on key minerals. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [57][58][60] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - On January 14, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $105.98 per ton. The supply of tin mines is uncertain, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and it is necessary to pay attention to December's import and export data and the recovery of consumption [60][61][62] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of January 9, the US propane inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has eased, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][65][66] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 15, the closing price of CEA was 78.50 yuan per ton, up 8.28% from the previous day. The carbon market is expected to be dull and the price to fluctuate widely in the current policy window period [66][67] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The demand is stable, and there may be a seasonal restocking demand before the Spring Festival. The supply load may not be maintained above 80%. It is recommended to adjust with the cost end in the short term and try long positions at low prices in the medium term [68][69][70] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, China's styrene production decreased slightly. The styrene price has risen due to unexpected maintenance and export increases. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks and US pure benzene tariff policies, and generally take a long - at - low approach, with the risk of excessive pure benzene imports [71][72][73] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of January 15, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers continued to accumulate. The supply has increased, and the demand has been hit by the cold repair of glass production lines. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium term and short far - month contracts at high prices [74][75] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - As of January 15, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased month - on - month. The glass price has been weak recently. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range of 900 - 1250 yuan per ton in 2026 and pay attention to potential supply - side changes [76]