Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: It is in a state of wide - range oscillation due to the game between industrial and secondary funds [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The oscillation center is lifted by ferronickel, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: With inventory reduction and increased purchasing willingness, there may be support at the lower level [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: As downstream production is cut, the strategy is to short at high prices [2][14]. - Polysilicon: It shows an oscillating trend [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 146,750 yuan, and the trading volume was 1,738,133 lots. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,415 yuan, and the trading volume was 672,584 lots. Other data such as prices of different nickel products and related spreads are also presented [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, plans to adjust the nickel ore production target, and may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore. China has implemented export license management for some steel products [5][6][8]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 163,220 yuan, and the trading volume was 431,256 lots. The industry inventory decreased by 263 tons compared to last week [11][13]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan/ton from the previous working day [12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,730 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 235,842 lots. The industrial silicon industry inventory (including social and enterprise inventory) was 76.3 million tons. The profit of silicon plants in some regions was negative [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The China Meteorological Administration and the National Energy Administration plan to establish an energy meteorological service system [15][17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook, while that of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260116