Binjiang Group(SZ:002244) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2026-01-16 07:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The core recommendation logic emphasizes that "Technology brings new wealth, and Binjiang is set for recovery" [1] - Binjiang Group's main business focuses on selling mid-to-high-end residential properties, with a strong brand presence in Hangzhou and the Yangtze River Delta region [1] - The company is expected to maintain a sales total of over 100 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025, positioning itself among the top ten real estate companies in China [1] - The anticipated recovery in housing prices in Hangzhou is supported by cautious supply and a significant presence of Binjiang Group in the local market [1][5] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Binjiang Group has expanded its land reserves against the market trend, with a focus on high-value projects in the Binjiang district [1] - The company has a healthy sales velocity with minimal historical burdens, leading to lower profit margin risks compared to competitors [1] - The estimated total value of projects within the Binjiang district is over 30 billion yuan, with a projected net profit margin exceeding 10% [1] Market Dynamics - The supply of new housing in Hangzhou is expected to be limited, which will stabilize and potentially increase property prices [2][7] - The demand for housing is recovering, and the reduction in housing listings is expected to support price stabilization [7] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Binjiang Group is estimated at 2.876 billion yuan for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.92 yuan [9] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.3x, with a target price of 12.60 yuan per share [9] Valuation Insights - The current PB valuation is considered low, with historical averages around 1.12x, indicating potential for upward movement [8] - The market is expected to assign a PB ratio above 1x due to the company's strong product capabilities and healthy project sales [8]