SWS Medical(SH:688410) Xinda Securities·2026-01-16 11:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company, Shanwaishan, is a leading domestic player in blood purification devices, achieving a revenue CAGR of 48.40% from 2019 to 2023, with a return to growth in 2025, showing a 39.79% year-on-year revenue increase in the first three quarters [5][6] - The blood purification device market in China is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2030, driven by policy support and the growing demand for dialysis services, positioning Shanwaishan as a key player in the import substitution trend [6][18] - The company has established a comprehensive product line in blood purification, including devices and consumables, with significant technological advantages and cost optimization through in-house production [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Shanwaishan, established in 2001, focuses on the research, production, and sales of blood purification devices and consumables, providing comprehensive solutions for kidney disease and critical care patients [21] - The company is privately held, with the largest shareholder holding approximately 25% of the shares [24] 2. Market Growth and Demand - The number of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in China is rapidly increasing, with 4.12 million patients in 2023, and the treatment rate is only 29.6%, indicating significant growth potential for blood purification services [6][51] - The blood purification market is projected to reach 51.5 billion yuan by 2030, with policies promoting domestic medical equipment driving demand [6][18] 3. Product and Technology Development - Shanwaishan has developed a full product matrix covering all scenarios in blood purification, with competitive pricing and performance comparable to international brands [7][19] - The company has a strong R&D capability, with 19.28% of its workforce in R&D and a stable R&D expense ratio exceeding 9.5% [8][20] 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 787 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 38.7%, and net profit is projected to be 131 million yuan, reflecting an 84.3% increase [8][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve, driven by increased market share and operational efficiency [31][40] 5. International Expansion - Shanwaishan has made significant strides in international markets, with overseas revenue growing at a CAGR of 45.89% over the past five years, accounting for 24.30% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [8][20]