Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the return of the founder of Haidilao, which is expected to stabilize the related party business and continue rapid growth in the third-party business [3]. - The company anticipates that the related party business will recover in the second half of 2025, driven by improvements in Haidilao's operations and pricing adjustments [10]. - The overseas and B2B businesses are projected to drive the third-party business's growth, with overseas revenue expected to reach 266 million RMB in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.43% [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,147.57 million RMB in 2023 to 8,118.23 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.99% [4]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 852.70 million RMB in 2023 to 739.43 million RMB in 2024, before recovering to 962.06 million RMB by 2027 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.04 in 2023 to 14.60 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [4]. Business Performance - The related party business is expected to stabilize, with a low profit margin of around 13% in the first half of 2025, suggesting limited room for further decline [10]. - The overseas business is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, supported by the ramp-up of production capacity in Thailand and enhanced local supply chain capabilities [10]. - The B2B segment is expected to continue its rapid growth due to brand and cost advantages, as well as the establishment of a professional B2B team [10].
颐海国际（01579）：颐海国际跟踪报告：关联方企稳，2B、海外延续较快成长