信用利差周度跟踪20260116：信用债跟随利率下行超长信用二永表现强势-20260117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment of interest - rate bonds was strong with slightly declining yields, and credit bond yields generally followed suit. The 10 - year ultra - long - term credit bonds performed strongly, and the spreads of secondary perpetual (Two - Perpetual, or "Two - Yong") bonds narrowed across the board. The excess spreads of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds decreased slightly. [3][4] - Vanke's debt extension plan was better than expected, leading to an increase in the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds. However, due to the lack of unexpected industry support policies and the will to ensure rigid payment, the market remains cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds with the "high - debt, high - leverage, and high - turnover" model. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards real - estate bonds in the short term. [5][40] - After the New Year, the performance of Two - Yong bonds was strong. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds, causing a significant decline in yields. Considering the central bank's strong intention to support the market, there may still be room for the spreads of Two - Yong bonds to compress. [5][40] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bonds Follow Interest Rates Downward, Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds Perform Strongly - Interest - rate bond yields: The yields of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 4BP, 3BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 1Y yield increased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit bond yields: Overall, they followed the decline in interest rates. The yields of 1Y AA+ and above - grade credit bonds remained flat, while those of other grades decreased by 1BP; 3Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 1BP, and other grades decreased by 3 - 4BP; 5Y AA+ grade yields decreased by 5BP, and other grades decreased by 1 - 2BP; 7Y credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 2 - 3BP; 10Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 4 - 5BP, and AA grade decreased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit spreads: Generally stable, with the 10 - year ultra - long - term credit performing strongly. The spreads of 1Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 2BP; 3Y AA+ and above spreads remained flat, and other grades narrowed by 2 - 3BP; 5Y AA+ spreads narrowed by 2BP, and other grades widened by 1 - 2BP; 7Y AAA spreads remained flat, and other grades widened by 1BP; 10Y AA+ and above spreads narrowed by 3 - 4BP, and AA grade spreads narrowed by 1BP. [3][11] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Mostly Decline by 0 - 1BP - By external rating: The credit spreads of external - rated AAA - level urban investment platforms generally remained flat, while those of AA and AA+ levels generally decreased by 1BP. [4][16] - By administrative level: The credit spreads of provincial and municipal - level platforms generally remained flat compared with last week, while those of district - county - level platforms decreased by 1BP. [4][22] 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Remain Stable Overall, Vanke's Spreads Compress Significantly - Real - estate bonds: Central - state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 9BP, state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads converged significantly by 451BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 14BP. Vanke's spreads decreased by 4285BP. [4][27] - Other industrial bonds: AAA - grade coal bond spreads remained flat, and other grades decreased by 1BP; AA+ steel bond spreads decreased by 3BP, and AAA remained flat; the spreads of all grades of chemical bonds remained flat. [4][27] 3.4 Two - Yong Bond Spreads Narrow Across the Board, Yields of Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Decline Significantly - 1Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 1BP, and spreads compressed by 2BP. - 3Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 3 - 5BP. - 5Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP. [35] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Decrease Slightly - Industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads converged by 0.43BP to 14.41BP, at the 36.98% quantile since 2015. - Industrial 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads remained the same as last week at 13.20BP, at the 32.28% quantile since 2015. - Urban investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.13BP to 4.51BP, at the 3.52% quantile. - Urban investment 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.79BP to 10.13BP, at the 18.64% quantile. [38] 3.6 Vanke's Extension Plan is Better than Expected, Two - Yong Bond Spreads Still Have Compression Space - Vanke: Its debt extension plan was better than expected, and the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds increased. However, due to the lack of relevant policies, the market is still cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, and it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. [5][40] - Two - Yong bonds: After the New Year, they performed strongly. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds. Considering the central bank's support, there may still be room for spread compression. [5][40] 3.7 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads, Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Huafu Securities Research Institute, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Sample selection criteria: Industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. Bonds with a remaining term of less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years are excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implied debt ratings. [46]