TSMC(US:TSM) Huajin Securities·2026-01-18 05:55Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][36] Core Insights - TSMC significantly increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from $40.9 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI hardware [3][6] - The report highlights the robust growth in AI-driven high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, which accounted for 55% of TSMC's Q4 revenue, with advanced process nodes (3nm and 5nm) contributing 63% of Q4 revenue [3][6] - The report emphasizes the anticipated growth in the semiconductor cycle driven by AI, recommending a focus on the entire semiconductor supply chain, including key stocks such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others [3][34] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - TSMC reported Q4 revenue of $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9%, with a gross margin of 62.3% [6] - The report notes that TSMC's net profit reached NT$505.74 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 48.3% [6] Market Review - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 3.77% from January 12 to January 16, with the computer sector leading at 3.82% [9][11] - Among the electronic sub-sectors, the integrated circuit packaging and testing sector had the highest increase at 14.47% [11] High-Frequency Data Tracking - Panel prices for TVs are expected to see a mild increase in January, driven by strong supply control from manufacturers and rising material costs [14] - Memory prices showed an upward trend, with DDR5 16G prices rising from $32.50 to $35.00 and DDR4 16Gb prices increasing from $70.50 to $76.13 between January 12 and January 16 [19]