国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20260118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the marginal changes in the fundamentals were relatively small [18] Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9-meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 760 yuan/cubic meter, a 30 yuan/cubic meter increase from the previous week. The price difference between the two regions was -20 yuan/cubic meter. The European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4] Supply - As of January 11, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in January, all of which were headed to mainland China. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in January and 0 in February, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.34 million cubic meters in January [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of January 16, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 20,300 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week), and at Taicang Port was 13,800 cubic meters (unchanged from the previous week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.7493 million cubic meters, with no change in inventory from the previous week [6][12] Market Trends - As of January 16, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The monthly spread (negative value) narrowed slightly this week. The 03-05 monthly spread was -11.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03-07 monthly spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05-07 monthly spread was -11 yuan/cubic meter [18] Other - As of the week of January 17, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was recorded at 1,532.00 points, a decrease of 152 points (-9.24%) from the previous week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI, was recorded at 589 points, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was recorded at 1,647.39 points [6][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was recorded at 6.966, a 0.54% decrease from the previous week, while the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.54% to 1.741 [6][55]