Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-18 07:57Report Information - Report Title: "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] - Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Date: January 18, 2026 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of ribbed bars and hot-rolled coils are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the rise should wait until the prices break through [3][5] 3. Summary Based on Directory Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro Environment: Domestic macro environment is generally positive. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti-involution", and an article in Qiushi Journal aimed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [5][8] - Black Industry Chain: Coking coal supply is facing tightening disturbances, and coal and coke prices are strong. Iron ore prices are fluctuating at high levels due to the expected resumption of hot metal production and steel mills' winter storage replenishment. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but costs support the rebound of the futures price. Steel mills' profits continue to be compressed [5] - Upside Drivers: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost-push factors, such as policy constraints on coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - Downside Drivers: After the resumption of production, the accumulation of steel contradictions may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The release of high inventory liquidity of iron ore may lead to the decline of the spot price leading the futures price [5] Ribbed Bar Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread of ribbed bars show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai ribbed bar spot price was 3300 (+10) yuan/ton, the 05 contract price was 3163 (+19) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was 137 (-9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -49 (+3) yuan/ton [14][18] - Demand: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Traditional off - season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - MS Weekly Data: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is at a healthy level. Long - and short - process supply and inventory data show different trends [24][26] - Production Profit: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of ribbed bars is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 165 (+10) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 137 (+34) yuan/ton, and the East China ribbed bar valley - electricity profit was 197 (-15) yuan/ton [28][31] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Basis and Spread: Similar to ribbed bars, the basis and spread of hot - rolled coils also show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, the 05 contract futures price was 3315 (+21) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was -15 (+9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -21 (+3) yuan/ton [33][37] - Demand: Demand is flat during the traditional off - season. However, exports remain at a high level through price - for - volume strategy [38][39] - MS Weekly Data: Hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively high, and production cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Production is maintained at a low level [46][47] - Production Profit: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of hot - rolled coils is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 2 (+30) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 139 (+36) yuan/ton [49][52] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of ribbed bars, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates, including differences between cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing, and Guangzhou [59][60][62][63][65] Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [66][67]