VISION GROUP(SZ:002733) Changjiang Securities·2026-01-18 13:16Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the fuel cell vehicle industry, recommending attention to companies involved in fuel cell systems, such as Yihuatong [3][8]. Core Insights - In 2025, the number of fuel cell commercial vehicles registered in China reached 10,778 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 52.5%. The total installed power reached 1,301 MW, up 59.8%, both hitting historical highs [3][6]. - The top three fuel cell system companies by installed capacity are Xiongtao Co., Bosch (China), and Weishi Energy. The leading automotive companies in terms of registrations are Chenglong, Yutong, and Haowo [3][6]. - The majority of fuel cell vehicle registrations are concentrated in Guangdong, accounting for 47% of the total [3][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The fuel cell system manufacturing cost has significantly decreased from approximately 11,000 yuan/kW in 2019 to about 2,400-3,900 yuan/kW in 2024, with a compound annual decline rate of 17%-25% [10]. - December 2025 saw a peak in registrations, with 759 MW registered in that month alone, representing 58.3% of the annual total, driven by the end of the first round of demonstration policies [10]. Industry Dynamics - The fuel cell vehicle market is still in its early commercialization stage, characterized by high concentration but an unsettled competitive landscape. The market size remains relatively small, with orders often being sporadic and project-based [10]. - The top three companies in fuel cell systems by installed capacity in 2025 are Xiongtao Co. (224 MW), Bosch (China) (124 MW), and Weishi Energy (113 MW) [10]. Regional Focus - The Guangdong demonstration city cluster aims to promote over 10,000 fuel cell vehicles during the demonstration period, with significant policy support leading to a completion rate of 68% by the end of 2025 [10]. - Other regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai, and Henan have set ambitious promotion targets, with completion rates varying from 64% to 114% by the end of 2025 [10]. Future Outlook - The report maintains an optimistic view on the future development of the fuel cell industry, anticipating continued cost reductions driven by domestic material substitution, economies of scale, and technological improvements [10].