南华期货丙烯产业周报：PDH检修增加-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include cost support with receding geopolitical sentiment, improved supply - demand situation of downstream PP but still with pressure, and expected supply contraction due to increased PDH maintenance. The propylene 03 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2][3]. - In the near - term, the propylene futures price increase is influenced by cost and supply - demand factors. Overseas propane remains strong, PDH maintenance increases, and the fundamentals of downstream PP improve marginally. In the long - term, there are expectations of propylene capacity expansion, PP over - supply pressure, and cost pressure from increased supply of crude oil and LPG [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost support: Geopolitical disputes after the festival brought risk premiums to crude oil and supported propane prices. Iran exported an average of 960,000 tons of LPG per month in 2025, with about 80% going to China. Although the geopolitical situation cooled down at the end of the week, the impact still remains [2]. - Supply - demand of downstream PP: The PP operating rate this week was 75.62%, slightly down from the previous high of nearly 80%. Spot trading improved marginally, but overall, supply - demand pressure still exists [2]. - Supply contraction: Nationally, the supply - demand gap was still loose, but in the Shandong market, the gap narrowed due to maintenance at Jinneng and Wanhua, leading to a stronger spot price. With continuous PDH losses, more maintenance is expected, and attention should be paid to potential load - reduction of cracking units due to naphtha consumption tax issues [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is expected to fluctuate and rise. The price range for PL03 is 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The unilateral strategy is to buy at low prices, as it is affected by cost and supply - demand. PDH maintenance provides stronger support, but the price may correct with the decline of crude oil risk premiums [15]. - Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies: The basis strategy is to expect the spread to widen. The spot price is strengthening due to supply - demand gap contraction, while the futures price may correct with the decline of geopolitical risks. For the PP - PL spread and PL/PG ratio, it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - For inventory management, if the finished product inventory is high, enterprises can short - sell propylene futures at high prices to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, if the inventory is low, enterprises can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Tensions in Iran and low PG shipments from the Middle East supported CP prices. Poor PDH profits led to increased maintenance of PDH units this week [19]. - Negative information: The long - term trading theme in the crude oil market may be oversupply, and the suspension of US military action against Iran led to a decline in risk premiums [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - January 19: China's Q4 GDP; January 20: China's LPR; January 22: US PCE index [21]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - The PL03 contract fluctuated and rose this week. The net positions of major profitable seats increased, with no significant changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. Foreign investors slightly reduced their net long positions, and retail investors slightly increased their net long positions. Technically, it shows an upward trend but may face short - term correction pressure [23]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The propylene 03 basis was 95 yuan/ton this week, with the spot price rising steadily and the futures price fluctuating. The 02 - 03 calendar spread was - 97 yuan/ton, compared with - 7 yuan/ton last week. The 03 contract had a larger increase, and the calendar spread showed a reverse arbitrage trend [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits - The gross profit of major refineries this week was 762 yuan/ton (+85), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 280 yuan/ton (-89). The cracking end declined slightly, and Fujian Refining had a short - term shutdown [28]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - Propane cracking profit fluctuated at a low level, and LPG cracking was less economical than naphtha. The PDH profit based on FEI was 88 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit based on CP was - 218 yuan/ton [30]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The spread between PP raffia and propylene was 305 yuan/ton, and the spread between PP powder and propylene was 285 yuan/ton, both slightly narrowing. Epoxy propane chlorohydrin method profit was 323 yuan/ton. Acrylonitrile had a large loss of - 2,362 yuan/ton. Acrylic acid profit was - 415 yuan/ton, and its profit was weakening. Butanol and octanol had profits, while phenol - acetone had a loss of - 1,026 yuan/ton [33]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profits - The Sino - Korean propylene spread remained stable recently, with CFR China at 785 US dollars (+35) [46]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Forecast 3.5.1 Shandong Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - In the Shandong market this week, supply decreased and demand increased. The supply - demand gap narrowed due to maintenance at Jinneng and Wanhua [50]. 3.5.2 Market Supply and Forecast - Due to maintenance of some units this week, propylene production was 1.2315 million tons (-10,500 tons), and the operating rate was 75.23% (-0.72%). PDH, MTO, and steam cracking units all had maintenance situations [53]. 3.5.3 Demand and Forecast - PP: The spread between PP pellets/powder and propylene slightly rebounded, and the pellet operating rate slightly decreased. Some PP units had maintenance or production - switching, and the operating rate continued to decline, but the spread has returned to the normal range [65][70]. - Epoxy propane: The overall load of epoxy propane slightly decreased but remained at a high level, with some enterprises having short - term shutdowns or load - reduction [71]. - Acrylonitrile: There were no significant changes this week [73]. - Butanol and octanol: The butanol operating rate increased by 4% due to increased loads at some enterprises. The 450,000 - ton unit of Bohua Yongli is expected to start trial production in February, and Shandong Jianlan is operating normally with a 70,000 - ton unit at a low load [79][81]. - Acrylic acid: The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate decreased but remained at a high level, and there was a divergence between production and profit [82]. - Phenol - acetone: Some enterprises increased their loads, while Wanhua decreased its load [84]. - Shandong regional demand: Demand in the Shandong region increased this week, mainly due to the resumption and increased loads of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [85].