南华期货钢材周报：暂无驱动，成材底部震荡-20260118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel products are neutral, lacking driving forces, and are in a range - bound state. The current core contradiction lies in the furnace charge end. In the short term, finished steel products are supported by the cost end, with limited downside space but lacking upward driving forces. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The price range of the main rebar contract 2605 may be between 3050 - 3200, and that of the main hot - rolled coil contract 2605 may be between 3200 - 3350 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Rebar production recovery has slowed down marginally, apparent consumption has rebounded unexpectedly, and inventory has turned to destocking, but the change is small. In the future, inventory may enter a restocking trend again. Overall, rebar inventory is at a low level and is in a destocking trend compared to the same period seasonally. - The destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large compared to the same period, it is in a destocking state seasonally. However, the recent increase in hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is significant, with a 58% week - on - week increase [1]. - For iron ore, steel mills' inventory is low, with restocking expectations supporting prices. But the decline in molten iron production and the continuous restocking of port inventory make it difficult for prices to rise significantly. - For coking coal, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port is at a relatively high level in recent years, and port inventory is increasing. The recovery of mine开工率 and the accumulation of mine coking coal inventory will suppress prices. Although winter storage supports prices, the large inventory base limits the upside space [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased month - on - month, but demand is weak in the off - season. - The coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, with the highest inventory level in the past five years, and the destocking pressure is high. - The low inventory of steel mills' iron ore at ports supports iron ore prices, while the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products. - Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge [1][5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The 05 - contract price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.13% and a volatility percentile of 14.3%; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.84% and a volatility percentile of 5.83% [7]. - Risk Management Strategy: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [7]. 3.2 Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - Positive Information: Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge; the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have rebounded; the low inventory of steel mills at ports supports iron ore prices; the destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has improved marginally [14]. - Negative Information: The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and production has increased month - on - month; the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products; the coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, and there is no driving force on the consumption side; export controls have taken effect [15]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Basis: Analyzed the basis seasonality of rebar and hot - rolled coil 05 contracts in Shanghai [16][17]. - Coil - to - Rebar Spread: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the spot coil - to - rebar spread in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as the seasonal changes in 01, 05, and 10 coil - to - rebar spreads [18][19][20]. - Term Structure: Analyzed the term structure spread diagrams of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore futures, and coking coal [24][25][26]. - Month - to - Month Spread Structure: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01) [27][28][29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have improved marginally, and the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production may gradually weaken [31]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the seasonal changes in hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, the relationship between hot - rolled coil export profit and export volume, and the relationship between the difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coils and steel export orders [46][48][49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - As of January 16, 2026, the cumulative consumption and production of the five major steel products have decreased year - on - year, and the current inventory has also decreased compared to the beginning of the year [65]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the relationship between steel production, profits, and inventory, as well as the impact of blast furnace and electric furnace production and maintenance on supply [66][70][71]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the predicted seasonality of the apparent demand for crude steel, the consumption of the five major steel products, and the inventory and sales ratio of various steel products [82][91][101].