Green Pine(SZ:300132) GF SECURITIES·2026-01-18 14:26Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 8.70 CNY and a fair value of 10.50 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company, Qingsong Co., Ltd., has transitioned to focus on the cosmetics ODM sector, with a significant recovery in profitability expected as operational efficiencies improve and customer orders rebound [10]. - The company has undergone a strategic shift by divesting its turpentine business and acquiring 100% of the cosmetics OEM leader, Norsbel, enhancing its competitive position in the cosmetics manufacturing industry [15][16]. - The report forecasts a positive trend in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 1.3 billion CNY in 2025, 1.8 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.3 billion CNY in 2027, supported by a robust customer base and product focus [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qingsong Co., Ltd. has evolved from a turpentine producer to a leading player in the cosmetics ODM market, acquiring Norsbel to strengthen its business model [15]. - The company has faced challenges due to the pandemic and regulatory pressures but is now on a recovery path with improved operational efficiency [16]. Financial Analysis - The company reported revenues of 19.69 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected slight decline to 19.40 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 21.11 billion CNY in 2025 [9][27]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with significant growth projected in subsequent years, reflecting a recovery from previous losses [10][27]. Industry Analysis - The global beauty and personal care market is projected to grow to 651.6 billion USD by 2024, with a steady recovery anticipated in the cosmetics sector [43]. - The Chinese cosmetics market is expected to reach 73.7 billion USD by 2025, indicating a shift towards stable growth as the industry matures [46]. - Regulatory changes are expected to benefit compliant companies, leading to increased market concentration and the exit of non-compliant players [51]. Strategic Focus - The company is concentrating on high-value product categories, particularly facial masks, and aims to enhance its customer base by focusing on key clients [10]. - The operational strategy includes optimizing product offerings and improving supply chain efficiency, which is expected to enhance profitability and market share [10].