东鹏饮料（605499）：2025年四季度延续景气增长，利润略有承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][3][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 20.76 billion to CNY 21.12 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.07% to 33.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between CNY 4.34 billion and CNY 4.59 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 30.5% to 38% [1][8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see revenue between CNY 3.916 billion and CNY 4.276 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 19.4% to 30.3%. However, the net profit may face slight pressure, with estimates ranging from CNY 579 million to CNY 829 million, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6.5% to +33.9% [1][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, supported by a planned issuance of H shares to raise funds for strategic initiatives [2][9][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of CNY 20.94 billion, CNY 25.93 billion, and CNY 31.15 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 24%, and 20% [4][19] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 4.50 billion, CNY 5.77 billion, and CNY 7.04 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 22% [4][19] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be CNY 8.65, CNY 11.10, and CNY 13.54 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][19] Market Dynamics - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the beverage sector, particularly in the functional drink category, which is projected to continue double-digit growth [2][8] - The company is also benefiting from cost advantages and scale effects, which are expected to enhance its net profit margin over the year [2][8] Strategic Initiatives - The planned issuance of H shares aims to raise approximately CNY 664.46 million, which will be used to improve supply chain infrastructure, expand overseas market channels, and explore investment opportunities [2][9] - The company is focusing on localizing operations in overseas markets through joint ventures and subsidiaries [2][9]