反内卷逐步推进

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, there have been signs of adjustment in non-ferrous varieties, with selling pressure emerging at higher levels. The strong upward trend in non-ferrous metals and precious metals is essentially driven by the new economic logic, specifically the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new energy and AI economies. However, their valuations are slightly high. The anti-involution logic of low-valuation varieties is gradually advancing. The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015. The national policy is determined to rectify involution-style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti-involution may play a role in the theme market in 2026 [2][5] - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week still revolved around non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices rose, risks also accumulated, and exchanges at home and abroad introduced corresponding measures to control risks. After the decline of the non-ferrous hot spots, the anti-involution theme may be able to take over [4] Summary by Directory Market Overview - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week centered on non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices increased, the risks also grew, and exchanges at home and abroad took steps to manage risks. The market's hot money may look for the next theme market [4] Variety Analysis - Precious Metals: Gold coins have been falling continuously in recent months, breaking below the 50 mark, and gold has shown continuous stagnant growth, so adjustments need to be watched out for [4] - Agricultural Products: It is rumored that the initial agreement on Sino-Canadian trade was reached on Friday, and the tariff on rapeseed may be lowered. The market has already priced in this expectation, causing rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to open significantly lower on Friday night. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support around 1000 for US soybeans is still effective [4] - Chemical Industry: In 2026, the chemical industry will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products is at the limit [4] - Black Sector: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downward space for coal is also limited, and the supply guarantee market is coming to an end [4] Data Tables - Plate Capital Flow: The total capital was 8.809 billion. The precious metal sector had 9.738 billion, a decrease of 1.862 billion in the non-ferrous sector, an increase of 1.281 billion in the black sector, a decrease of 189 million in the energy sector, a decrease of 213 million in the chemical industry, an increase of 281 million in the feed breeding sector, an increase of 1.308 billion in the oil and fat sector, and a decrease of 587 million in the soft commodity sector [9] - Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data: It includes the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and gold [9] - Energy and Chemical Weekly Data: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties such as fuel oil, low-sulfur oil, and asphalt [11] - Agricultural Product Weekly Data: It presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12] Graphs - There are graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, oil and fat varieties, energy varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non-ferrous plate varieties [13][15][18]