Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-19 07:24Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The 30-year to 10-year government bond yield spread reached 46.2 basis points (BP) on January 16, the highest level since September 2022[1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, signaling a dovish stance[1] - The Ministry of Finance initiated the issuance of 30-year government bonds with a competitive bidding total of 32 billion yuan, raising concerns about supply pressure for ultra-long bonds[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From January 10 to January 17, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.57%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.34%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield decreased by 3.59 BP, whereas the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 BP[2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.24%, and the offshore yuan appreciated by 0.13%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest week saw crude oil inventories rise to 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week recorded a rise in gold ETF holdings to 3,490 million ounces, up by 68 million ounces[3] - The dollar long position increased by 258 contracts to 17,929 contracts, while the short position rose by 157 contracts to 21,659 contracts[3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment year-on-year change was -2.60%[5] - Retail sales year-on-year change was 1.30%[5] - Money supply (M2) growth was reported at 8.50%[5]