SWSC(SH:600369) Southwest Securities·2026-01-19 08:26Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy may continue to focus on structural measures, with "structural easing" as the priority direction, aiming to support the real economy and address structural weaknesses [2]. - The "stabilizer" role of banks remains effective, while the trading behavior of securities firms and other trading desks may develop new characteristics [2]. - Looking ahead to the bond market in Q1 2026, short - term interest rates are expected to maintain their advantage, and the trading logic of long - term interest rates may be further deepened. The performance of 10 - year treasury bonds may continue to be better than that of 30 - year treasury bonds [2][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Matters - On January 15, 2026, the central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 6 - month (181 - day) buy - back reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The outstanding scale in January reached 6.8 trillion yuan [5]. - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a series of policies, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and measures to support the private economy, technological innovation, green transformation, and the real estate market [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From January 12 to 16, 2026, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total investment of 951.5 billion yuan and a maturity of 138.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net investment of 812.8 billion yuan. From January 19 to 23, it is expected that 1.1015 trillion yuan of base money will mature and be withdrawn [11]. - In mid - January, the money market tightened first and then loosened. The central bank maintained its stance of protecting liquidity. The DR001 remained in the range of 1.3% - 1.4% throughout the week [13]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, last week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 553.58 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 254.88 billion yuan. The city commercial banks had the largest issuance scale and a net financing of 65.36 billion yuan [17][23]. - The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased overall last week [25][28]. 3. Bond Market Primary Market - At the beginning of 2026, the issuance rhythm of treasury bonds accelerated compared with the same period in 2025, mainly due to the increase in the issuance of discounted treasury bonds and short - term treasury bonds. As of January 16, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds was about 0.2 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 0.19 trillion yuan [31]. - The supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week. The net financing of treasury bonds was - 299.21 billion yuan, local bonds was 73.717 billion yuan, and policy - bank financial bonds was 51.1 billion yuan [38]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds reached 0.05 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [41]. Secondary Market - Last week, large - scale banks bought a large amount of treasury bonds within 10 years, supporting medium - and short - term interest rates. The overall performance of treasury bonds within 10 years was excellent. The yields of 30 - year treasury bonds increased [44]. - The average daily turnover rate of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) decreased, while that of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250215) increased [48]. - The average spread between the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) and the secondary active bond (250022) was 1.61BP, indicating a possible change in liquidity premium [51]. - The 10 - 1 - year and 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spreads widened. The long - term and ultra - long - term local - treasury bond spreads narrowed [58][62]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading increased as the money market eased, with an average of about 8.62 trillion yuan [65]. - In the cash bond market, large - scale banks increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds, small - and medium - sized banks reduced their holdings of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds, insurance companies bought long - term treasury bonds and local bonds, securities firms sold long - term treasury bonds, and funds increased their holdings of policy - bank financial bonds within 5 years [65][72]. - The leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, and other institutions decreased in November 2025 [66]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and cathode copper futures increased, while those of wire rod futures, cement price index, and South China Glass Index decreased. The CCFI index increased, and the BDI index decreased [87]. - The wholesale prices of pork increased, and those of vegetables decreased. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.01 [87]. 6. Market Outlook - In Q1 2026, short - term interest rates are expected to maintain their advantage, and the trading logic of long - term interest rates may be further deepened. The performance of 10 - year treasury bonds may continue to be better than that of 30 - year treasury bonds [2][89]. - Investors can consider gradually building positions in ultra - long - term bonds. Initially, they should hold medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy - bank financial bonds, and then adjust the strategy according to market conditions [90][91].