TSMC(US:TSM) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-19 10:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the semiconductor and storage sectors, including 拓荆科技, 中微公司, and 中芯国际 [3][4]. Core Insights - TSMC's aggressive capacity expansion reflects strong confidence, with a capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 reaching up to $56 billion, a 37% increase from 2025 [10][12]. - The AI segment is expected to grow significantly, with TSMC revising its AI processor revenue CAGR to mid-high 50% [12][13]. - The storage market is experiencing price increases, with DRAM prices projected to rise by 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and NAND prices by 20% in the same period [15][18]. - The packaging and testing sector is seeing price hikes due to tight capacity and rising raw material costs, with increases expected to reach 30% [21][26]. Summary by Sections TSMC's Expansion and AI Growth - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, a 25.5% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 62.3% [10][12]. - The company anticipates continued high growth into 2026, with Q1 revenue guidance of $34.6-$35.8 billion, representing a 37.9% YoY increase [10][12]. - Advanced process nodes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) accounted for 77% of revenue, with high-performance computing (HPC) leading the growth [10][12]. Storage Market Dynamics - The storage market is benefiting from increased demand driven by AI and server capacity, leading to a historical high in supplier bargaining power [15][18]. - Specific DRAM products are expected to see significant price increases, with 64GB RDIMM DDR5 projected to rise by 40% in Q1 2026 [16][18]. Packaging and Testing Price Increases - The packaging sector is experiencing price increases due to high demand and raw material cost surges, with major Taiwanese firms reporting near-full capacity utilization [21][26]. - Companies like 力成 and 华东 are seeing increased orders and revenue visibility, indicating a positive outlook for the packaging sector [21][26].