钢材周报：基本面偏弱，钢价震荡运行-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry are weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills has increased, but with the deepening of the off - season, demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the upward driving force is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - Supply: Some steel mills carried out maintenance. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.903 million tons (- 0.74 thousand tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.0836 million tons (+ 2.85 thousand tons) [4]. - Demand: Demand increased but was seasonally weak overall. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1.9034 million tons (+ 15.38 thousand tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.1416 million tons (+ 5.82 thousand tons) [4]. - Inventory: Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. Rebar total inventory was 4.3807 million tons (- 0.04 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.9541 million tons (+ 5.23 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons (- 5.27 thousand tons); hot - rolled total inventory was 3.6233 million tons (- 5.8 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.858 million tons (- 5.01 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7653 million tons (- 0.79 thousand tons) [4]. - Basis: As of January 16, the basis of the rebar main contract was 137 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled main contract was - 15 yuan/ton (+ 9 yuan/ton) [4]. - Summary: The profitability rate of steel mills rose to 39.83%; the molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9 thousand tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%; the electric furnace operating rate was 72.97%, unchanged from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.08% [4]. 3.2 Raw Materials - Prices: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,426 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton) [17]. 3.3 Steel Mill Operating Conditions - Molten Iron Output and Blast Furnace Operating Rate: Molten iron output declined, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. As of January 16, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 90.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% [20][30]. - Profitability Rate: The profitability rate of steel mills increased [24]. 3.4 Production - Rebar: As of January 16, rebar production decreased by 0.74 thousand tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production decreased by 1.94 thousand tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 1.2 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. - Hot - rolled Coils: Hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. 3.5 Demand - Rebar: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 91.8 thousand tons [43]. - Hot - rolled Coils: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 30.2 thousand tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 886.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 thousand tons, and it was at a high level compared to the same period [48]. 3.6 Inventory - Tangshan Billet: As of January 16, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 521 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.7 thousand tons. The inventory of major steel products was 8.661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.74 thousand tons [52]. - Rebar: Rebar inventory decreased slightly [54]. - Hot - rolled Coils: Hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline [59]. 3.7 Downstream Industries - Steel Exports: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197.8 thousand tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [64]. - Automobile Industry: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173.3 thousand vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.9 thousand tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand tons [68]. - Real Estate Industry: From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of houses was 597.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the cumulative completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises was 93.117 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4% [72].