南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告：巴西产区降雨均匀，阿根廷土墒减弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the meteorological conditions in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, and points out the current growth status, sowing progress, and potential impacts of weather on yields in these regions, also lists the annual key points of international soybeans [1][2][53] Summary According to Related Contents 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas - Overall Situation: Brazil's soybeans are generally in the middle growth stage, with some areas entering the final stage. The national emergence rate is 6.2%, the vegetative growth period is 24.6%, the flowering period is 48.7%, the pod - filling period is 19.6%, and the harvesting progress is 1.39%, higher than the same period last year and the historical average [1][14] - Regional Conditions - Mato Grosso: The harvesting progress is close to 5%, and it is expected to accelerate by the end of January, affected by rainfall and crop maturity [1][14] - Mato Grosso do Sul: Soil moisture is good, the pest and disease incidence is low, and over 85.7% of the soybean fields are rated as "good" [1][14] - Goias: Some irrigated areas have entered the maturity stage, and the rest benefit from regular rainfall [1][14] - Minas Gerais: The crop condition is good, and harvesting will start in the last ten days of January [1][15] - Parana: Decreased rainfall and high - temperature weather have accelerated the maturity of plots nearing the end of the cycle, and sporadic harvesting has begun in the western part [1][15] - Rio Grande do Sul: State - wide rainfall is beneficial to crop growth, and the first - sown crops have entered the pod - filling stage [1][15] 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas - Sowing Progress: The sowing progress increased by 5.6% week - on - week to 93.9%, about 5% behind the previous year [2][35] - Crop Conditions: 96% of the sown crops are in good condition or above (a 4% decline from the previous period), and 73% of the water conditions are suitable or above (a 12% decline from the previous period) [2][35] - Potential Risks: The northeastern region and the north - central part of Santa Fe are affected by excessive water, delaying sowing. In Buenos Aires, the soil surface is showing water deficiency. If there is no effective rainfall in the next 2 - 3 weeks, the potential yield per unit may be reduced [2][35] 3. International Soybean Annual Key Points - January: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [53] - February: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [53] - March: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [53] - April: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [53] - May: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [53] - June: U.S. yield per unit and Brazilian exports [53] - July - September: U.S. yield per unit [53] - October: U.S. yield per unit, production, and South American planting area [53] - November: U.S. production and South American planting area [53] - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [53] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Planting Period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Risks include floods and extreme drought [61] - Flowering Period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Risks include floods, droughts, and continuous rain [61] - Growth Period: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [61] - Harvest Period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Risks include continuous rainfall and storms [61]