SF Holding(SZ:002352) Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-19 14:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the aviation industry as flight volumes increase, with domestic flights reaching 89,086 flights from January 10 to January 16, 2026, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [29]. - SF Holding is noted for its high safety margin and low valuation, with a current PE ratio of 18X, indicating potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [6][24]. - The logistics company Shimon Holdings is preparing for its IPO, showcasing strong resource integration capabilities and a stable revenue growth trajectory [46][48]. Summary by Sections SF Holding - SF Holding has a substantial cash reserve, with cash accounting for 14.2% to 20.5% of its market value from 2022 to 2024, providing a strong support for its stock price [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a shareholder return rate of 3.8% in 2025 and 2026, with dividend yields projected at 2.57% and 2.88% respectively [12][15]. - The current valuation is at a ten-year low, suggesting a potential for recovery as demand in the mid-to-high-end express market improves [21][24]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is emerging from a low season, with flight utilization rates improving to 7.89 hours per day, which is 92.6% of the levels seen in 2019 [30]. - The upcoming Spring Festival travel season is anticipated to boost passenger numbers, with a projected 5.39 billion travelers expected on railways, marking a 5% year-on-year increase [6][29]. - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has increased by 3.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in pricing power [39]. Logistics Sector - Shimon Holdings is recognized for its strong resource integration and stable revenue growth, with expected revenues of 9.2 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected decline due to client revenue drops [48][51]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major clients, ensuring a stable business model and low replacement risk [46][47]. - Revenue from the supply chain logistics service segment is expected to contribute significantly to overall earnings, with a projected revenue of 3.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [48]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in pricing, with single ticket revenue for major companies like SF Holding and Yunda showing positive trends [59][62]. - The overall express delivery business volume has increased by 5% year-on-year, indicating robust demand despite a slight decline in revenue [59]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of express delivery companies as they adapt to market conditions and pricing strategies [80].