NORINCO International(SZ:000065) GF SECURITIES·2026-01-20 05:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 12.38 RMB and a fair value of 15.75 RMB [9]. Core Insights - The rise in coal prices is expected to improve the performance of the coking coal business, reinforcing the company's transformation logic into an "electricity operator + resource service provider" [2][3]. - The company is anticipated to benefit from the upward trend in coking coal prices, with a projected improvement in performance for Q4 2025 [9]. - The company continues to expand its integrated power investment and operation along the "Belt and Road" initiative, with significant progress in international engineering projects [9]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to decline from 21,488 million RMB in 2023 to 13,935 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 60.0% in 2023, followed by declines of -11.2%, -21.6%, -1.0%, and -5.8% in subsequent years [4][12]. - EBITDA is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of 1,646 million RMB in 2023 and 1,649 million RMB in 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 906 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 1,187 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 41.6% in 2023 and 5.4% in 2027 [4][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from 0.90 RMB in 2023 to 1.11 RMB in 2027 [4][12]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the company's stock has shown relative performance against the market, with a notable increase in coking coal prices contributing to this trend [5][9].