Orient Securities(SH:600958) Orient Securities·2026-01-20 05:25Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with expectations favoring risk assets as domestic risk evaluations steadily decline, making A-shares relatively superior [7][21] - The trend for A-shares, commodities, and gold remains strong, although the medium-term uncertainty for commodities has increased, while A-shares and gold show stable medium-term uncertainty [42][7] - The report highlights a concentration of risk preference towards mid-cap stocks, with a focus on opportunities in sectors such as electric power equipment, basic chemicals, electronics, and non-ferrous metals [7][42] Group 2 - Recent financial data indicates a decline in social financing, with a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan in December, primarily due to policy adjustments, while financing demand remains concentrated in technology and policy-prioritized sectors [15][13] - U.S. inflation pressures are relatively mild, with December's CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [16][18] - Regulatory measures are effectively managing market expectations, with recent adjustments aimed at preventing excessive speculation and ensuring that funds flow towards quality assets, thereby stabilizing risk preferences [20][21] Group 3 - The report notes that the trend for A-shares has strengthened, while the trends for gold and commodities remain stable, amidst overall fluctuations in U.S. stocks and a weakening trend in U.S. bonds [22][24] - The report identifies a strong trend in the basic chemicals sector, with electric power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and defense industries also showing robust trends [25][22] - Short-term sentiment for commodities is rising, while medium-term uncertainty is increasing; gold shows rising short-term sentiment but stable medium-term uncertainty; A-shares exhibit a decline in short-term sentiment with stable medium-term uncertainty [28][30]