原油日报：CPC码头有望在月底前重启-20260120

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - CPC 3rd SPM is expected to restart by the end of the month, and the basis for the strength of European light oil is not solid [2]. - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On January 16 local time, the US is accelerating the expansion of Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. Under the new arrangement, Chevron can pay the Venezuelan government in cash and sell all the crude oil it produces there [1]. - On January 16 local time, Venezuela announced the signing of a liquefied petroleum gas commercialization contract, marking the official start of its export of this energy resource [1]. - On January 17, as the exchange - rate shock caused by the US oil blockade on Venezuela eases, Venezuela is preparing to resume dollar sales to support its domestic currency. Banks are collecting bids, but no funds have been allocated yet [1]. - The US Energy Department is exploring a plan to exchange US medium - sour crude for Venezuelan heavy crude to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve [1]. Investment Logic - Recently, due to frequent attacks on Black Sea oil tankers and the adjustment of CPC crude loading plans, buyers are avoiding purchasing CPC crude, leading to a decline in CPC crude's discount and an increase in the discounts of North Sea and Azerbaijani light crude. However, the expected restart of CPC 3rd SPM by the end of the month weakens the basis for the strength of European light oil [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range. Medium - term: A short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risks - Downside risks: An agreement is reached in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and macro black - swan events occur [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3].