颐海国际（01579）：首次覆盖报告：股息托底，全球扩张

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Yihai International (1579.HK) [4][15] Core Insights - Yihai International has transitioned from a high-growth valuation to a low-valuation, high-dividend company, with a focus on cash dividends and a stable return [22][24] - The compound seasoning industry in China is expected to continue growing, with a market size of approximately 126.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for further penetration and expansion [22][30] - The company is poised for growth through its B-end and overseas markets, with significant improvements expected in its affiliate income as it stabilizes alongside Haidilao [2][15] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Since its listing in 2016, Yihai International has experienced a cycle of expansion, valuation bubble, adjustment, and stabilization [22] - The company has shifted its market perception from a high-growth entity to one focused on dividends, with a high payout ratio of 89.97% in 2023 and 95.06% in 2024 [24] Industry Space - The compound seasoning market is entering a phase of steady growth after rapid expansion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% expected from 2020 to 2024 [30] - The market for compound seasonings is driven by trends such as increased restaurant chain rates and urbanization, which support the growth of this segment [30] Growth Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth from 6.57 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 800 million yuan to 980 million yuan during the same period [15][8] - The B-end market is a key growth area, with the company planning to establish a small B team to enhance its product offerings and directly engage with restaurant clients [2][66] - Overseas markets are also expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenue of 270 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [70] Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate modest growth, with revenues expected to increase by 0.5%, 5.9%, and 6.0% respectively, while net profits are projected to grow by 8.8%, 10.3%, and 10.2% [15][8]