立华股份（300761）：生猪超额优势明显，Q4黄鸡贡献主要盈利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company has a significant competitive advantage in pig farming and has seen a major contribution to profits from yellow-feathered chickens in Q4. The yellow chicken industry has entered a growth phase since Q4 2025, with the company leading in cost efficiency. The long-term development prospects are viewed positively [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 5.5 to 6 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 60.6% to 63.8%. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be between 0.66 and 0.72 yuan [7]. - The yellow chicken segment is expected to see a 10% increase in output in 2025, with a sales price of 11.4 yuan per kilogram. The company anticipates a profit contribution of approximately 3 to 3.5 billion yuan from yellow chickens in Q4 [7]. - The pig farming segment is projected to have an output of about 2.1116 million pigs in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 63%. The average sales price is expected to be 13.85 yuan per kilogram [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15.354 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.121 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% [12][17]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to recover from a loss of 402 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 1.257 billion yuan in 2027 [12][17]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -5.4% in 2023 to 11.8% in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [18]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside of East China, with expectations of maintaining an annual growth rate of 8% to 10% in yellow chicken output [7]. - The company’s cost structure in pig farming is among the best in the industry, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability due to enhanced farming efficiency [7].