Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Guoxin Securities·2026-01-20 13:52Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the beef prices in the US are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, while global corn and soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are projected to increase [1][3]. - The agricultural products in the planting chain are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, awaiting upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA's January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in global ending stocks [15][16]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38%, with China's ratio increasing by 1.94 percentage points [15][17]. - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons [33][34]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.39 percentage points to 29.40% [33][34]. - Short-term focus is on South American weather, while long-term trends are expected to improve due to reduced domestic soybean stocks and strong import support [35][37]. Wheat - The USDA's January report indicates a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 3.38 million tons [47][48]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2515 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in US beef production for 2026, with an expected overall price increase of approximately 5.1% [3][19]. - The report anticipates that domestic beef prices will maintain a bottoming upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import constraints [3][22]. Dairy - The report notes a slight decrease in US milk ending stocks for 2026, with expectations for domestic raw milk prices to begin an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import reductions [3][24][26]. Pork - The USDA predicts a 2.69% increase in US pork production for 2026, with overall prices expected to remain high [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being steadily controlled, which is expected to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - The report indicates that US chicken supply is expected to recover, with a slight increase in production and consumption [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is projected to remain ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture, and MuYuan Co., among others [6][8].