SCSF(SH:600779) Huachuang Securities·2026-01-20 14:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 42% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 391 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year [1][3]. - The fourth quarter is projected to see a revenue of 690 million yuan, a decline of 51.73%, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, down 69.52% year-on-year [1]. - The significant decline in financial performance is attributed to macroeconomic conditions, industry adjustments, and policy factors, leading to a slow recovery in demand for core scenarios like business banquets [7]. - The company has proactively managed inventory levels during the industry downturn, ensuring a healthy channel and price stability, which has resulted in a controlled inventory level of 2-3 months for its core product [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3%, while 2025 is expected to see a revenue drop of 41.7% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1.341 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%, while 2025 is expected to see a significant decline of 70.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 0.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50 [3][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on product upgrades and refined channel management, with a dual-brand strategy to enhance brand image and product recognition [7]. - The core product, "Zhen Niang Ba Hao," maintains a price range of 250-300 yuan, which is expected to support a gradual recovery in demand [7]. - The company anticipates that while the first quarter of 2026 may still face pressure, there is potential for marginal improvement in operations by the second quarter due to low base effects [7].