Group 1: Lin Qingxuan (02657HK) Overview - Lin Qingxuan is a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, established in 2003, focusing on the "oil-based skincare" concept using camellia oil as a core ingredient [2][11][13] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.7%, while net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 6 million yuan to a profit of 187 million yuan, representing a 120% year-on-year increase in 2024 [2][11][13] - The brand's market share in the high-end skincare segment is 1.4%, making it the only domestic representative among the top 15 high-end skincare brands in China for 2024 [11][13] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The skincare market in China has reached a scale of 400 billion yuan, with significant growth potential in per capita spending compared to Western markets [11][13] - The segment of facial essence oils is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42.8% from 2019 to 2024, significantly outpacing the overall industry growth [11][13] - The high-end skincare market is projected to expand to 218.5 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the mainstream adoption of the "oil-based skincare" concept [11][13] Group 3: Product and Channel Strategy - Lin Qingxuan has successfully upgraded its core product, the camellia essence oil, to its fifth generation, achieving cumulative sales of over 45 million bottles and maintaining the top position in the national facial essence oil sales for 11 consecutive years [11][13] - The company is enhancing its product matrix with stable growth in other products like creams and essence waters, while also focusing on R&D breakthroughs to improve product efficacy [11][13] - The brand's omnichannel strategy includes nearly 600 physical stores and a strong online presence, with online sales accounting for 65.4% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [11][13] Group 4: Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Lin Qingxuan from 2025 to 2027 are 347 million yuan, 577 million yuan, and 820 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 86%, 66%, and 42% [11][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are expected to be 31, 18, and 13 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11][13] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - The "January Effect" in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the return of overseas investors and the gradual inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets, which is expected to continue [4][12][14] - The market's liquidity environment has improved compared to the end of the previous year, with a notable increase in trading activity and a decrease in short-selling [14] - Despite the positive trends, the market remains sensitive to fluctuations in overseas risk appetite and domestic economic conditions [14]
申万宏源证券晨会报告-20260121