Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) HTSC·2026-01-21 02:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.25 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit for 2025 ranging from RMB 1.58 billion to RMB 1.74 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65% [6]. - The company anticipates a reduction in losses for Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by land reserve contributions and operational improvements [6]. - The U8 product line is expected to continue its rapid growth, supported by strategic market expansions and new product launches at a price point of RMB 10 [7][9]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 14.67 billion in 2024, RMB 15.14 billion in 2025, RMB 15.48 billion in 2026, and RMB 15.84 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 3.20%, 3.24%, 2.25%, and 2.32% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 1.06 billion in 2024, RMB 1.68 billion in 2025, RMB 1.95 billion in 2026, and RMB 2.25 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 63.74%, 59.29%, 16.09%, and 15.12% respectively [5]. - The company’s EPS is projected to increase from RMB 0.37 in 2024 to RMB 0.80 in 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 33.40 in 2024 to 15.69 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5]. - The target price of RMB 17.25 corresponds to a PE of 25x for 2026, reflecting a higher growth rate compared to peers [9][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and reducing costs, which is expected to enhance profit margins [8]. - The beverage business is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, particularly in core markets [7]. - The company is also benefiting from trends towards health-conscious products, particularly in its natto business [7].