PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-21 02:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments is maintained at "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with a significant drop in net profit due to impairment provisions. However, it remains the top seller in the industry, with an optimized land reserve structure and advantageous financing channels [2][3] - The anticipated net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.03 billion, 4.42 billion, and 6.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.37, and 0.51 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 76.2, 17.7, and 12.9 times [2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve operating revenue of 308.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The total profit is expected to be 9.72 billion yuan, down 37.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 1.03 billion yuan, a decline of 79.5% [3][6] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate project transfers and an impairment loss of 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to impact net profit by 4.2 billion yuan [3][6] Sales Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 12.35 million square meters, down 31.2%. The average sales price increased by 13.9% to 20,483 yuan per square meter [4] - The company acquired land worth 77.13 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 13.0% year-on-year, with a land area of 4.572 million square meters, up 39.2%. The average land price decreased by 18.8% to 16,869 yuan per square meter [4] Financial Management and Cost Structure - The company has streamlined its headquarters organizational structure to enhance management efficiency. Financing channels remain open, with a total bond issuance of 37.58 billion yuan in 2025 at a maximum coupon rate of 2.55% [5] - The financing cost has been continuously reduced, with the three-year medium-term note issued in November at a rate of 1.85% [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary indicates a projected operating revenue of 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan. The gross margin is expected to be 12.7%, and the net margin at 0.3% [6][11] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 76.2 for 2025, decreasing to 12.9 by 2027, indicating a potential recovery in valuation as performance improves [6][11]