Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) GF SECURITIES·2026-01-21 04:47Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 15.8-17.4 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50-65%, which aligns with previous expectations and exceeds market consensus [7] - The company has demonstrated strong growth due to ongoing reforms, with a projected net profit of RMB 16.6 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.5% [7] - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and expanding its beverage business, which is anticipated to drive future growth [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 14,213 million - 2024: RMB 14,667 million (growth rate: 3.2%) - 2025: RMB 15,319 million (growth rate: 4.4%) - 2026: RMB 16,264 million (growth rate: 6.2%) - 2027: RMB 17,020 million (growth rate: 4.6%) [3] - EBITDA is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 3,724 million by 2027 [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 645 million in 2023 to RMB 2,371 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.9% in 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.23 in 2023 to RMB 0.84 in 2027 [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 37.7 in 2023 to 14.9 in 2027, indicating improved valuation [3] Strategic Focus - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms, with a focus on enhancing its product offerings and operational efficiency, which is expected to lead to improved profit margins [7] - The introduction of the "燕京 U8" product aims to capture the preferences of younger consumers and drive national expansion [7] - The company is also exploring the health food segment with its natto products, indicating a diversification strategy [7]