LIHUA(SZ:300761) Donghai Securities·2026-01-21 08:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the price of yellow chickens has rebounded in Q4, leading to an improvement in profitability on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][5]. - The company is a leading player in the yellow feathered chicken breeding industry, with a target annual growth rate of 8-10% for yellow feathered chicken output [5]. - The report anticipates a rebound in pig and chicken prices in 2026, which is expected to release profit elasticity for the company [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.5-6 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 60.55%-63.84% [5]. - In Q4, the company sold 567 million meat chickens, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, with an average selling price of 11.40 yuan/kg, down 11.9% year-on-year [5]. - The company sold 211.16 million live pigs in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, with an average selling price of 13.85 yuan/kg, down approximately 19.94% year-on-year [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates that the company has maintained cost advantages through refined management across various segments, leading to improved profitability in the yellow chicken segment starting from August [5]. - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 5.75 billion yuan in 2025, 12.02 billion yuan in 2026, and 13.03 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.69 yuan, 1.44 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report notes a decrease in the breeding stock of yellow feathered chickens, which is expected to support price stability in 2026 [5]. - The report also mentions that the pig price is expected to rise due to a reduction in industry capacity, which could enhance profitability for the company [5].