Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 11.41 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the restaurant industry in 2025 is significantly affected by the rhythm of takeaway subsidies, with a notable enhancement in cost-performance advantages for low-priced daily items under substantial subsidies [5]. - The company is actively optimizing its single-store performance and increasing profits, benefiting from enhanced subsidies starting from Q2 2025, leading to a year-on-year growth of 13.7% in takeaway revenue for the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the second half of 2025, with a focus on both existing and new regions, while also adjusting menu prices to maintain its core competitiveness of "delicious and affordable" [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 5,210 million - 2025: RMB 5,343 million (growth of 2.56%) - 2026: RMB 6,177 million (growth of 15.61%) - 2027: RMB 7,329 million (growth of 18.64%) [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 580.62 million - 2025: RMB 701.10 million (growth of 20.75%) - 2026: RMB 785.75 million (growth of 12.07%) - 2027: RMB 930.10 million (growth of 18.37%) [4]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025-2027 due to short-term disruptions from channel adjustments and price reductions, with EPS projected at RMB 0.60, 0.67, and 0.79 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is implementing a stock incentive plan to deepen the alignment of interests among stakeholders, including founders and executives, while also exploring new retail platforms to leverage its supply chain capabilities [8]. - As of the end of 2025, the company operates approximately 818 stores across 14 provinces and 193 cities in China, with an estimated 146 new stores expected to open in the second half of 2025 [7].
小菜园（999 HK）：强化性价比优势，拥抱高质量增长