贵州茅台价格市场化改革专题研究报告：从外溢依赖到独立生态，构建消费者导向的价格形成机制

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai [5][6] Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing a market-oriented transformation with a focus on a consumer-driven pricing mechanism, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape and pricing formation in the industry [1][3][4] - The 2026 pricing system reform aims to create a "multi-price coexistence" ecosystem that aligns with consumer needs and enhances channel profitability through improved service [3][35] - The white liquor industry is transitioning from dependence on Moutai's demand to establishing independent ecosystems, leading to differentiated development among companies [4][29] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable pricing for the flagship product, with anticipated sales growth during the Spring Festival [5] - Medium-term recovery in demand and product structure upgrades are expected to enhance profitability [5] - Long-term prospects remain positive as the company focuses on consumer-centric strategies and service capabilities, with potential for price increases and brand premium [5] Market Dynamics - The white liquor industry is shifting from a "follow-the-leader" growth model to a "differentiated competition" structure, driven by Moutai's market reforms [4][29] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, emphasizing the need for companies to build independent customer bases and market scenarios [4][29] Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing strategy breaks away from rigid factory prices, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions and consumer expectations [35] - The pricing reform is seen as a significant step towards marketization, ensuring channel profitability while stimulating sales [35] Company Performance Forecast - Revenue projections for Kweichow Moutai are set at CNY 183.3 billion, CNY 184.3 billion, and CNY 186.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 0.5%, and 1.0% respectively [5] - Expected net profit for the same period is CNY 90.45 billion, CNY 90.50 billion, and CNY 91.79 billion, with growth rates of 4.9%, 0.0%, and 1.4% respectively [5]