格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine and its global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Japan's fiscal crisis and Trump's actions have led to a "triple kill" in the US financial market, with some suggesting Europe may be creating market turmoil to pressure Trump [1] - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, warns that Trump's radical policies may trigger a global capital war, which could lead to inflation or currency depreciation and increase foreign investors' concerns [1] - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to sell US Treasuries by the end of the month due to credit risks from Trump's policies, holding about $100 million in US Treasuries at the end of 2025 [1] - The world's largest AI open - source community Hugging Face states that DeepSeek R - 1 has broken barriers, leading to China's AI reshaping the global landscape with more model downloads than the US [1] - Tesla will restart its supercomputer project Dojo 3, marking a major shift in its chip strategy towards "space artificial intelligence computing" [1] - Japan's government bond market has crashed, forcing the Bank of Japan to consider restarting unlimited bond - buying, which may lead to the yen breaking the 160 exchange - rate line [1] - Foreign investors account for about 65% of Japan's monthly government bond cash trading volume, and more Japanese pension funds may return to Japan, impacting the US Treasury market [1] - Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons and aiming to be among the top 10 countries in gold reserves [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions such as seizing control of Venezuela's oil and threatening to buy Greenland have brought great uncertainty to the global political and economic order, and it has imposed punitive tariffs on 8 European countries, with European countries planning counter - tariffs [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [2] - TSMC estimates its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a 27% - 37% increase year - on - year, signaling the continued boom in AI and restoring investors' confidence in AI demand [2]