渤海租赁（000415）：核心利润大幅提振

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a significant recovery in core profits, driven by the optimization of its asset structure and the anticipated decline in financing costs due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][13] - Despite a projected net loss of 2.5 billion to 5 billion yuan in 2025 due to one-time goodwill impairment, the core net profit is expected to increase significantly when excluding this impact [9] - The company is expected to generate substantial cash flow from asset disposals, which will help reduce high-interest debt and improve financial conditions [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 33,675 million, 38,431 million, 49,115 million, 39,287 million, and 37,222 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 5.5%, 14.1%, 27.8%, -20.0%, and -5.3% [8] - The expected EBITDA for the same years is 22,757 million, 23,534 million, 16,332 million, 17,387 million, and 20,410 million yuan [8] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 1,281 million, 904 million, -315 million, 2,784 million, and 3,487 million yuan, with growth rates of 164.5%, -29.5%, -134.8%, 984.2%, and 25.3% [8] Valuation and Price Target - The reasonable value per share is estimated at 5.26 yuan, based on a 1x price-to-book ratio for 2026 [9][13] - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in 2026, with a projected net profit of 27.84 billion yuan and a book value per share of 5.26 yuan [13]