PING AN OF CHINA(HK:02318) Ping An Securities·2026-01-22 09:28Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In December 2025, the bond supply scale was at a relatively low level, with the bond custody balance's year - on - year growth rate dropping by 1.8 percentage points compared to November, and the monthly new custody scale being 819.2 billion yuan, a low level in 2025. The supply of credit bonds increased while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. In terms of institutions, asset management accounts had insufficient bond - allocation power, while insurance institutions increased their holdings. Looking ahead, the government bond issuance in Q1 may be fast, and banks are expected to be the main force in absorbing government bond supply. Insurance institutions' bond - allocation scale may be supported by high yields and supply, while the non - bank bond - allocation power of asset management accounts may be weak [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Supply in December 2025 - The bond custody balance's year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 was 11.6%, 1.8 percentage points lower than in November. The new custody scale was 819.2 billion yuan, a low level in 2025 [3][4]. 2. Bond Supply by Type - Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit had less - than - seasonal increases of 42.4 billion yuan, 175.9 billion yuan, and 1.3 trillion yuan respectively. Credit bonds and ABS had more - than - seasonal increases of 596.8 billion yuan and 165.5 billion yuan respectively. In December 2025, the new supply of treasury bonds was 358.2 billion yuan, and that of local bonds was 431 billion yuan, both at relatively low levels. The net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 622.4 billion yuan, at a low level in 2025, while the net supply of corporate credit bonds was 377.1 billion yuan, rising against the season [3][8][11]. 3. Bond - Allocation by Institutions in December 2025 - Banks: After adjustment for repurchase, the actual bond - buying scale was 385.6 billion yuan, in line with the season. They mainly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds. The adjusted government - bond - buying scale was 432.5 billion yuan, accounting for 55% of the new government - bond custody scale, indicating a seasonal weakening of bond - allocation power [23]. - Insurance institutions: They increased their holdings by 304.7 billion yuan, 204.6 billion yuan more than the season, mainly increasing their holdings of credit bonds and local government bonds, possibly due to low bond - allocation in November and year - end bond - grabbing [26]. - Asset management accounts: They increased their holdings by 221.3 billion yuan, 358.5 billion yuan less than the season, mainly reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increasing their holdings of credit bonds, possibly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and low issuance of debt - biased funds [29]. - Foreign investors: They reduced their holdings by 115.5 billion yuan, 147.3 billion yuan less than the season, mainly reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit, possibly due to the unsustainability of risk - free carry - trade and insufficient new supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit [35]. - Securities firms: They reduced their holdings by 504 million yuan, 178.5 billion yuan less than the season, mainly reducing their holdings of credit bonds, possibly for year - end profit - taking [35]. 4. Outlook - Bond supply: With the front - loaded fiscal policy, the government bond issuance in Q1 may be fast, and the supply of local government bonds is expected to be higher than last year [38]. - Banks: They are expected to be the main force in absorbing government bond supply. With stable deposit growth and slowing loan growth, banks still have large bond - allocation space, but attention should be paid to the structural restrictions on bond - allocation caused by deposit transfer and activation [41]. - Insurance institutions: High yields and supply may support their bond - allocation scale. In January, they continued to have strong bond - allocation power, possibly affected by the premium "good start" effect. The wide spread between ultra - long - term local government bonds and insurance's predetermined interest rate is still attractive [44]. - Asset management accounts: Under the pressure of stock - market diversion, the non - bank bond - allocation power is expected to be weak. The bond - allocation power of wealth management products and debt funds has not increased significantly, possibly due to funds flowing into bank deposits, the equity market, and insufficient issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit [46].