SF Holding(SZ:002352) HTSC·2026-01-22 02:30Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Views - December saw a slowdown in package volume growth and a narrowing of price declines, attributed to the diminishing effect of the "trade-in" subsidy and high base effects from the previous year [1][2] - The report recommends companies with strong overseas growth potential such as Jitu Express, and logistics leaders like SF Holding, while maintaining a long-term positive outlook on ZTO Express due to its strong cash flow and cost advantages [1][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In December, retail sales growth slowed to +0.9% year-on-year, with commodity retail sales at +0.7%, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year and the waning impact of the "trade-in" subsidy [2] - The online retail sales of physical goods also decreased to +0.5% year-on-year in December, down from +3.0% in the previous months [2] Package Volume and Pricing - The express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year package volume growth of +2.6% in December, down from +6.4% in the previous months, influenced by increased operational costs and a warm winter affecting winter clothing sales [2][3] - The average price per package saw a year-on-year decline of -1.0%, with a seasonal increase of 0.12 RMB compared to the previous months [2] Company Performance - Among major express companies, Shentong (Shunfeng) led with a package volume growth of +11.1%, followed by SF Holding at +9.3% and YTO Express at +9.0%, while Yunda Express saw a decline of -7.4% [3] - The report highlights that the price increase in express delivery has suppressed low-priced packages, benefiting leading companies in terms of market share [3] Strategic Developments - SF Holding and Jitu Express announced mutual shareholding, which is expected to enhance their cross-border business capabilities and network coverage [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for collaboration between Jitu's mature overseas delivery network and SF's resources in cross-border logistics [4] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - SF Holding (002352 CH) with a target price of 53.10 RMB and a "Buy" rating [9] - Jitu Express (1519 HK) with a target price of 12.40 HKD and a "Buy" rating [9] - ZTO Express (2057 HK) with a target price of 185.90 HKD and a "Buy" rating [9]