SANY(SH:600031) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2026-01-23 07:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that "A New Era, New SANY" is set to begin, with the engineering machinery industry experiencing upward resonance both domestically and internationally, positioning the leading Chinese engineering machinery company for global expansion [1] - The company is identified as one of the most elastic stocks in terms of performance during the excavator cycle, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from excavators [4][11] - The report highlights the ongoing globalization strategy of the company, with international revenue and gross profit showing substantial growth [4][11] Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a cyclical reversal, with both domestic and international markets showing positive trends. The global market size for engineering machinery is projected to reach $213.5 billion in 2024 and $296.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - The domestic excavator market is expected to see a gradual recovery, driven by demand from agriculture, forestry, and municipal projects, with total excavator sales projected to reach 235,257 units in 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year [2][18] - The company is benefiting from increased market share overseas, particularly in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which are experiencing industrialization and urbanization [3][11] Company Performance - The company’s excavator revenue accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating strong potential for performance elasticity as the excavator industry enters an upward cycle [4][27] - The company’s international revenue and gross profit represented 60% and 68% of its main business revenue and gross profit, respectively, in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 10% [4][28] - The successful listing of H-shares is expected to further advance the company's globalization strategy, with net proceeds from the offering allocated to expanding global sales and service networks, enhancing R&D capabilities, and optimizing production efficiency [5][23] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.51 billion, 11.04 billion, and 14.12 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 30%, and 28% [13][15]