4Q25全球科技业绩快报：英特尔

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry or Intel, but it highlights strong performance metrics that suggest a positive outlook for the company. Core Insights - Intel delivered a solid fourth quarter for 2025, with revenue reaching $13.7 billion, surpassing both its guidance and consensus estimates, driven by growth in AI infrastructure and server segments [1][8] - The company achieved a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%, exceeding guidance by approximately 140 basis points, and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.15, significantly outperforming expectations [1][8] - Intel anticipates a CPU supply shortage in 1Q26 due to depleted buffer inventories, with improvements expected starting in 2Q26 as production efficiency increases [3][11] - The foundry business is progressing, with Intel beginning shipments of its 18A process and reporting steady yield improvements [4][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q25, Intel's revenue was $13.7 billion, exceeding guidance and consensus estimates, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9% and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 [1][8] - For 1Q26, Intel forecasts revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with a midpoint of $12.2 billion, lower than consensus due to supply constraints [5][13] Capital Expenditure (CapEx) - CapEx for 2026 is expected to be flat or slightly down due to balancing capital efficiency with demand signals, but a significant yield improvement of 7% to 8% has been reported [2][10] - Intel is securing equipment from suppliers like ASML to mitigate lead time issues, with an expected increase in CapEx in 2027 to support manufacturing expansion [2][10] Supply Chain and Production - Intel identifies 1Q26 as a critical period for CPU supply shortages, primarily due to production shifts towards server wafers [3][11] - The company is experiencing significant demand for CPUs driven by AI workloads, which is expected to sustain shortages for several years [3][11] Foundry Business Development - Intel's foundry revenue reached $4.5 billion, with successful shipments of the 18A process and steady yield improvements [4][12] - Development of the 14A process is on track, with customer engagement expected to lead to firm supply decisions in late 2026 to early 2027 [4][12]